The foldable smartphone market continues to grow, albeit slowly. A TrendForce Report predicts sales of foldable phones will come in a little under 20 million units in 2023. By 2027, the report estimates that foldable sales will reach 25 million units in 2024, and 70 million units in 2027. Those numbers sound big, but for comparison, Counterpoint Research estimates the global smartphone market to be at just under 300 million units for Q3 2023 alone.

Apple, for their part, is characteristically absent from this nascent product category. They continue to evaluate the viability of this market before they decide if and when they’ll enter. They’ve been well served in the past by letting demand build before hoping on a particular bandwagon.

A reoccurring rumor suggests that Apple’s first foldable device will not be an iPhone, but will instead be an iPad. It’s not unprecedented for the iPad to serve as a technology proving ground for other devices in the ecosystem. The iPad line were the first Apple products to add technologies like variable refresh rate displays and Mini-LED. iPad sells in decent numbers, but nowhere near iPhone, so theres much less risk if a technology or manufacturing process ends up not working out.

Many people don’t see a point in a foldable tablet. Lets look at some of the potential benefits:

• Larger displays – Being able to fold the tablet makes it easier to carry around something like a 16 or 17 inch iPad in a bag. This becomes even more attractive when you factor in the Sidecar feature that lets you use your iPad as an external display for your MacBook. You would have a large secondary display for your laptop sometimes, and a nice large standalone machine the rest of the time.
• Smaller when it needs to be – I’m someone that floats between the 12.9 inch and 11 inch iPad Pro models. I can’t settle on just one of them, and it’s not just because I’m indecisive. Depending on the task, one of them “feels” better than the other. If I’m editing video or writing code, the 12.9 inch is the way to go. If I’m doing a lot of research and planning, the 11 inch device is my go to. A foldable iPad could potentially solve this problem. I can imagine a 14 or 15 inch iPad that folded over into an iPad mini sized device. That would be killer. And most iPadOS apps these days are built with flexible interfaces to accommodate the multitasking system, so there shouldn’t be any additional work for app developers to do to adapt between modes.
• iPhone Pro Max “replacement” – I’ve seen a number of articles and videos opining on whether or not the iPhone or Mac replaces the iPad. But that can also go the other way too. I view the current iPad mini as kind of an “iPhone Pro Max…Max”. The devices aren’t too far apart in size, but the Mini ends up being more capable with the multitasking features of iPadOS. I could imagine a cellular folding iPad coming reeeeallly close to being an iPhone replacement except for the fact that:
  • Apple doesn’t expose the phone numbers of cellular iPads, so they can’t make and receive calls natively
  • The best mobile camera hardware doesn’t generally make it into tablets. With the social stigma around taking pictures with a tablet (despite the fact that it’s a great option for people with low/poor vision), that’s probably for the best.
  • The amount of additional hardware that doesn’t normally make it into an iPad (earpiece, ultra wideband chip, NFC) would make an already expensive hypothetical device as expensive as the Vision Pro.
    
• No Silly Outer Screen – I have an irrational hatred of the outer screens on today’s foldable phones. I mean, I get it…it’s practical. Most people don’t want to have to unfold their device just to check a notification. But it bugs the crap out of me that someone could buy a $1700 foldable and never unfold it. Because its always going to be quicker to just use the outer screens (which keep getting bigger and closer to “normal” smartphone size). Tablets are more like laptops and desktops in that there’s not that same need for immediacy. You’d likely be unfolding the device to accomplish some kind of longer running task versus quickly checking your messages.

I hope these rumors about a folding iPad come to fruition one day. It makes more sense than a foldable Mac, which is apparently also being prototyped. For me, the idea of going from two iPad Pros to one without losing the benefits of either is very appealing.